中二病
German exports to China fall over 12% in H1 as industrial upgrading reshapes trade structure; cooperation remains vital: expert_我的网站
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German exports to China fell year-on-year in the first half of 2026, pointing to a deeper restructuring of bilateral trade as China moves up the manufacturing value chain, Chinese analysts said. They also cautioned that the decline should not be read as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, given the deep economic ties and the continued benefits of cooperation for both sides.
Germany's first-half exports to China fell by more than 12 percent year-on-year to just under 37 billion euros ($43 billion), while imports from China rose 8.9 percent to 91.8 billion euros, according to data from Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) cited by Reuters on Sunday. Germany's trade deficit with China widened to about 55 billion euros from 40 billion euros a year earlier, the report said.
Reuters cited Corinne Abele, GTAI's East Asia expert, as pointing to weaker domestic demand and the fact that German companies are increasingly producing inside China.
Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer said that China's diminishing reliance on Germany showed that the country is becoming more independent of Western powers and catching up technologically, according to Reuters.
China has continued to strengthen its capabilities in sectors including new-energy vehicles, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, enabling more products and technologies that previously depended on imports to be supplied domestically, Zhao Junjie, a senior research fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday.
"This means the structure of China-Germany trade is changing," Zhao said, noting that as Chinese industries move up the value chain, China's reliance on some German industrial products is declining, while Chinese companies are becoming more competitive in sectors where German manufacturers traditionally enjoyed strong advantages.
In a position paper released on July 28, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said that the rapid growth of China's modern industries is driven by innovation, with nationwide research and development (R&D) spending growing by an average of 10 percent annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period.
The changing trade trend is also linked to Germany's own industrial competitiveness and policy environment, Zhao said, noting that high energy costs, demographic pressures and slower investment in some emerging technologies have weighed on the country's industrial upgrading and innovation.
At the same time, political and security considerations have increasingly shaped Germany's economic policy toward China, as Berlin has moved closer to the broader US and EU "de-risking" agenda, Zhao said.
"Such policies can be a double-edged sword, raising costs for German companies in China and disrupting bilateral economic cooperation while seeking to pressure Chinese industries."
However, it is notable that overall China-Germany trade remained substantial. Total bilateral trade exceeded 128 billion euros in the first half, about 3 billion euros more than Germany's trade with the US, according to Reuters.
China overtook the US as Germany's top trading partner in 2025 after US President Donald Trump launched sweeping protectionist tariffs that weighed on German exports to the US.
Falling German exports should not be seen as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, especially as bilateral ties are increasingly expanding beyond trade into investment, local production and R&D, analysts said.
German companies invested more than 7 billion euros in China in the first 11 months of 2025, up 55.5 percent from 4.5 billion euros in 2024 and 2023 and hitting a four-year high. German companies are bulking up their China business and adopting "China for China" production strategies partly to reduce exposure to possible tariffs and export restrictions, according to Reuters.
Major German companies are also deepening their presence in China. BASF's Verbund site in Zhanjiang, South China's Guangdong Province went fully operational in March with an investment of 8.7 billion euros, the largest single investment project wholly owned by a German enterprise in China, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
"China and Germany have developed deeply intertwined economic interests over many years," Zhao said. Rather than treating stronger Chinese industries as a reason to reduce cooperation, Germany should adapt to a relationship in which competition increasingly coexists with investment, innovation and industrial collaboration, he noted.
Recent high-level exchanges have also underscored the importance both sides attach to economic ties. During a meeting with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche in May, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said that China and Germany are important economic and trade partners with a solid foundation, enormous potential and strong complementarity, calling on both sides to consolidate cooperation in traditional sectors and tap opportunities in emerging fields, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
Reiche said that the German business community remained confident about China's economic prospects and innovation capabilities and would continue to deepen cooperation, Xinhua reported.
The two sides have also moved to strengthen institutional mechanisms. China and Germany agreed to restart the China-Germany Joint Economic Committee and establish two new working groups on trade and investment and industrial cooperation, according to the MOFCOM.
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B | 从北京冬奥会后徐梦桃以携程首位「金牌滑雪大使」身份推介冰雪线路，到巴黎奥运会、美加墨世界杯期间各大平台火爆的观赛套餐；再到今年夏天在旅游平台购买「楚超」「齐鲁超」等赛事门票成为一种常态。短短几年，「体育旅游」已经从一种小众活动变成了大众习以为常的选择。在这个越来越多人愿意为观赛体验买单的时代，各大旅游平台纷纷打破传统体育观赛的服务边界，重新定义起大众「跟着赛事去旅行」的出行逻辑。7月末，一则「汪顺亲自教你学游泳」的活动广告吸引了很多人的注意。简单而言，只要在飞猪旅行App动动手指完成每日任务积累积分，冲上该阶段排行榜前50名，就有机会以「1元购」的方式赢得线下与汪顺面对面的名额。据统计，两个阶段的活动周期内，有近百万人参与了这场积分争夺。白海豚席卷的天气里，每一位到场的幸运用户都是克服万难专程前来。「北京来的，高铁取消了两次。」「我从香港来的。」「从英国来的，我没错过汪顺巴黎奥运会后的任何一次比赛。」……置身现场，我们的耳畔，这样的话语比比皆是。图源：飞猪旅行到底是什么力量，能让他们甘愿跨越千里奔赴而来？顶级体育明星的号召力是一方面，「目的」和「目的地」是另一方面。活动主办方飞猪旅行相关负责人透露，夏季正是游泳、亲水旅行的旺季，挑选国民认知度高、亲和力强的游泳奥运冠军汪顺来做暑期档的代言人，与品牌想传递的「会玩、会省、值得信赖」心智相吻合。
C | 而活动之所以被命名为「飞猪超级现场」，也正是因为「现场」才是用户愿意奔赴的「目的」。多位幸运用户都向体育产业生态圈表示，汪顺现场传授蛙泳、自由泳的活动内容是他们看中的价值点，而千岛湖本身具备的成熟户外运动场景和长三角地理优势，又让这场奔赴多了一层周末游、避暑度假的合理性。当「跟奥运冠军学游泳」和「度假」在同一场活动发生，由此在平台产生的机酒、门票及在地消费，少则数百，多则数千、上万元。由此可见，体育明星不仅仅是起引流作用的形象代言人，更是实实在在能带来消费转化的「带货好手」。图源：飞猪旅行而这种借力体育明星撬动体育旅游消费的逻辑，也正在成为行业共识。2022年，携程旅行就曾签约徐梦桃为首位金牌滑雪大使，推广滑雪产品；巴黎奥运会期间，他们更是一口气宣了潘展乐、张博恒、梁伟铿、王昶4位代言人，树立形象标杆。飞猪也计划将「飞猪超级现场」作为一个可复制、可迭代的长期IP，向更多项目的运动员甚至是明星延展。这些顶尖运动员，不仅拥有竞赛成绩光环，更是其所在项目赛事的票房保障。
D | 对各大旅游平台而言，一次代言合作、一场线下见面会，仅仅是切入赛事流量的入口，他们更看重的，是体育偶像打通从线上观众到线下出行的闭环意义。国际咨询公司GMI的数据显示，2024-2032年间，全球体育旅游市场规模将扩大近一倍，2032年更是有望飙升至1.33万亿美元。面对这块庞大的蛋糕，入局，是所有旅游平台的一致选择。从本质上看，体育和旅游之间，只有一层窗户纸。两者同样是「为体验买单」，也同样是在取悦自己。而在当下，许多旅游平台正在努力捅破这层窗户纸，让更多精彩的体育赛事，成为撬动大家跨城出行的理由。那为何国内的一众旅游平台会在这个时间点如此迫切地押注体育？答案在于，体育消费涉及的长停留、结伴出行，以及跨城市的探索欲，完美契合当前旅游平台对高客单价人群的渴望。和来去匆匆的演唱会相比，体育赛事的周期经常长达一两周。冠军悬念下，消费者往往愿意在目的地深度停留。与此同时，体育活动又具备极强的结伴消费属性，绝大多数体育迷都会选择与朋友、伴侣或家人同行，又成倍放大了行程背后的消费体量。而从消费客群的结构上来看，年轻化与跨区域甚至跨国看比赛又是当下的主流。Expedia统计数据显示，44%的旅行者上一次观看体育赛事时选择了跨国出行，而在16-34岁的客群中，这个比例更是高达56%。人群画像之上，亚太地区的消费者还特别喜欢尝鲜。据统计，五分之四的亚太地区体育迷更倾向于选择全新的目的地，而非熟悉的地方。这背后既有媒体平台对各大体育联赛国际化传播的推波助澜，又有体育迷们在异地观赛综合性价比与体验感上的考量。
E | 比如，F1、ATP、WTA等全球巡回赛事，就会激发观众跨国观赛热情。体育迷选择其中一站，特意休假、拖家带口前往观赛，是这些赛场上的常态。而这些动作，对于旅游平台而言，就不是一次性的短暂门票收入，而是高频的高额消费拉动。2025年中国网球公开赛 图源：中网社媒而放眼全球，尽管近几年亚太地区体育旅游势头正旺，但和把看比赛当作一种生活方式的欧美人民比，还是存在一定差距。咨询公司Fortune统计数据显示，2025年北美体育旅游市场规模已达2032.9亿美元，占全球的28.74%；而在爆发的亚太市场，2025年的总规模为1495亿美元，占全球的21.14%，考虑到人口及赛事密度，这个数据还有极大增长空间，可以说，随着全民健康意识的提升与全球体育消费需求的增长，体育旅游在中国已经不是一种营销噱头或者边角料，而是真正能够决定旅游平台未来增长上限的一条赛道。趋势之下，抢夺体育明星仅仅只是第一步，更丰富的赛事票务服务，才是留住用户的关键。近几年来，几乎每一家旅游平台，都在体育资源上持续发力。
F | 不管是独家票务代理，还是定制化的旅游产品，肉眼可见的，摆在观众面前的买票选择越来越多样了。覆盖多层级赛事体系的飞猪，既合作了中国足协超级杯、上海劳力士大师赛等高级别赛事，又拿下江苏常晋足球俱乐部独家票代，还手握齐鲁足球超级联赛、浙BA、楚超等赛事；押注电竞赛事的同程旅行售卖三角洲、PEL、KPL等热门赛事门票；而主攻高规格赛事的携程，从全运会观赛套餐到F1中国大奖赛、澳门乒乓球世界杯等赛事，场场热卖；就连去哪儿旅行也曾联动区域资源，与中国澳门特区政府旅游局联合推出了赛事消费季等促销活动。资源竞争的背后，是体育旅游对平台真金白银的业绩拉动。携程2026年第一季度财报就特别点出了体育旅游的增长态势，以F1中国大奖赛为例，2025年通过携程购买F1旅游产品的异地游客占比高达79%，他们平均每人会在上海停留3天。体育产业生态圈获悉，刚刚落幕的2026香港足球盛会HKFF中，通过携程购票的异地用户占比更是高达83%，其中35-49岁、有一定积蓄的主力人群占比高达45%。香港足球盛会现场 图源：TEG而放眼体育赛事市场，旅游平台的选择又几乎都有着两个共性——门槛低、消费高。一方面，几乎所有旅游平台都不约而同地选择了门槛低、群众基数大、有话题度的赛事入局。不管是地方「城超」，还是自带流量的乒乓球世界杯、F1中国大奖赛，这些赛事本身就具备超高的社会热度与话题度。旅游平台并不需要从零开始创造需求，只是发挥自身的供应链优势，把原本割裂的机票、酒店、门票变成完整消费闭环，就能创造增量价值。另一方面，越来越多的平台意识到，体育观赛人群的消费力被低估了。Collinson集团报告就显示，在机场出行消费中，去看篮球、F1赛车及奥运会的旅客，花费超过200美元的比例显著高于演唱会旅客；同时，体育观赛人群更倾向于使用机场贵宾厅，消费意愿与购买力都更强。他们更舍得花钱，更不愿意「亏待自己」。2026F1喜力中国大奖赛 图源：久事体育这些共性背后，是现场观赛的真实体验给消费者带来的心智变化。从家门口的「城超」，到附近城市的国际赛事，再到为了自己喜欢的项目与运动员前往另一个国家，中国观众一点一滴培养起来的观赛习惯，同时也是不断升级的体育旅游消费。无论商业模式如何演变，赛事现场，那些和成千上万陌生人共同拥抱热爱的体验总是无法被磨灭。
G | 体育不仅仅是一种旁观，更可以是连接人、目的地与美好生活的桥梁。而赛事门票也只是这座桥梁的一个入口，真正的生意，是帮用户把「想去现场」的冲动和可能性，变成一段完整的、值得被记住的旅程。
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